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Volatile Oil


The Light Crude Continuous Contract fell from $67.70 a barrel on Monday to $62.75 on Thursday, and closed at $65.79 on Friday. Consequently, oil stocks followed the sharp move in oil prices last week.

The first chart is an OIH (basket of oil stocks) daily chart, which suggests a consolidation or correction over the next few weeks. The Price-by-Volume bar (on left side of chart) indicates OIH may trade between 111 and 114 short-term. There's also resistance around 115, i.e. the 10 & 20 day MAs. There's further resistance at 117.88, which is the current Parabolic SAR sell signal (red dots). However, if oil tests $70 a barrel, then the high at 119.30 is another barrier. Oil is less than $5 a barrel below $70. So, OIH may rise and fall quickly.

OIH major support is at the (rising) 50 day MA, currently just over 108. However, if OIH closes below the 50 day MA, then next major support is around 105, i.e. the longer Price-by-Volume bar. Around 105 may be the bottom of the consolidation zone, while a correction may result somewhere in the 90s or 80s. The short-term price of oil is largely dependent on the rate of global economic growth, reflected in monthly economic data, and supply disruptions, including geopolitical events and hurricanes in the Gulf.

The second chart is an SPX (S&P 500) same period daily chart. SPX lead OIH higher and then lower recently. If OIH continues to lag SPX, then OIH will rise next week, perhaps to the Parabolic SAR sell signal, trade around the 10 & 20 day MAs, and then fall to a new recent low, e.g. 105. SPX created a bullish doji at the 50 day MA. However, a volatile trading range may continue next week, perhaps between 1,200 and 1,235.

Next week is a light economic data week: Mon: None, Tue: Existing Home Sales, Wed: Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales, Thu: Unemployment Claims, and Fri: Revised Michigan Consumer Sentiment. The weekly oil inventory report is Wed at 10:30 AM ET. There are several other excellent trading opportunities next week, where large gains can be made quickly. "Chance favors the prepared mind"-Louis Pasteur.

Charts available at PeakTrader.com Forum Index.

Arthur Albert Eckart is the founder and owner of PeakTrader. Arthur has worked for commercial banks, e.g. Wells Fargo, Banc One, and First Commerce Technologies, during the 1980s and 1990s. He has also worked for Janus Funds from 1999-00. Arthur Eckart has a BA & MA in Economics from the University of Colorado. He has worked on options portfolio optimization since 1998.

Mr Eckart has developed a comprehensive trading methodology using economics, portfolio optimization, and technical analysis to maximize return and minimize risk at the same time. This methodology has resulted in excellent returns with low risk over the past four years.


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